Vaata kolmapäev, 2 jaanuar 2002 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 002 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 02 Jan 2002IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9754
(S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n
flare at 02/1252 UTC. This region grew in magnetic complexity
during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was
seen yesterday in white light. Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751
(N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small
C-class flares. Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent
through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare. A decrease in
area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic
structure remained unchanged in Region 9767. New Regions 9769
(S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 01-2100Z kuni 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. This event has been on a
very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this
writing.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the
forecast.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 03 Jankuni 05 Jan
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 99% | 99% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 02 Jan 231 Prognoositud 03 Jan-05 Jan 230/230/225 90 päeva keskmine 02 Jan 220
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 03 Jan kuni 05 Jan
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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