Vaata neljapäev, 29 november 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 333 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Nov 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 9715 (N05
E04) produced seven C-class flares and two M-class flares. The
largest flare was an M5/1n at 29/1036 UTC. This region remains
magnetically complex as a beta-gamma-delta configuration and has
grown in area coverage, spot number and extent. Region 9715
produced two events with associated Type II Radio sweeps, an M1/Sf
at 29/0149 UTC and a C7/Sf at 29/1405 UTC. Region 9717 (N04E53) and
Region 9718 (S07E58) have shown some minor activity producing a
single C-class flare and two C-class flares respectively..
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9715 has the potential to produce a major
M-class flare or possibly an X-class flare. Region 9718 has also
shown signs of growth and could produce M-class flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Quiet levels are expected for the
first day of the period. Late on day two or early on day three the
CME Shock from the M6/1b at 28/1635 UTC is expected to arrive at
Earth. With the arrival of this shock the geomagnetic field is
expected to reach active levels with isolated minor storm conditions
at higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Novkuni 02 Dec
| Klass M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Nov 216 Prognoositud 30 Nov-02 Dec 210/215/220 90 päeva keskmine 29 Nov 218
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Nov 003/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-012/015-020/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Nov kuni 02 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 10% | 10% |
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