Vaata laupäev, 3 november 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Nov 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 307 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 Nov 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours due to
numerous C-class flares. Regions 9687 (S19E49) and 9682 (N12W50)
combined to produce a C5 event at 0741 UTC. An additional C5/Sf was
produced by 9682 at 0935 UTC. Region 9682 was quieter today than
yesterday and appears to have decreased slightly in area. Region
9687 also was quieter today. Preliminary analysis of 9687 indicates
at least a beta-gamma magnetic class, and there may possibly be a
weak delta sunspot in the group. Region 9684 (N05W15) showed some
spot rotation and some development of the leader spot. A partial
halo CME, reported by LASCO, entered the C2 field of view at 01/2230
UTC and was apparently associated with yesterday's M1 event out of
Region 9682.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. There is a slight chance for
a major flare or a proton producing flare. Regions 9682, 9684, and
9687 continue to be the major groups to watch for energetic flare
activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled during the next 24-36 hours. An
increase to unsettled to slightly active levels is forecast for the
second and third days in response to the partial halo CME event that
occurred late on 1 November.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 Novkuni 06 Nov
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 Nov 216 Prognoositud 04 Nov-06 Nov 215/210/215 90 päeva keskmine 03 Nov 206
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 02 Nov 006/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 03 Nov 005/005 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 005/008-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 Nov kuni 06 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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