Vaata pühapäev, 7 oktoober 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 280 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 Oct 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few minor
C-class flares occurred during the period. One event of note, was a
12 degree filament (centered at S21E12) that erupted between 07/1643
and 1651 UTC. An associated long duration C2 x-ray flare and an
optical sub flare occurred in the area of the filament's eruption.
LASCO/EIT imagery has not updated sufficiently, to be able to
ascertain at this time, if a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was created
from the disappearing solar filament (DSF). Due to the central
location of the DSF, an accompanying CME could very possibly be
geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: 9655 (S21E52) and 9656
(S21W13).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the
proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
possible on the second day of the forecast due to a small recurrent
coronal hole and its associated high speed stream.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Octkuni 10 Oct
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 Oct 173 Prognoositud 08 Oct-10 Oct 170/175/175 90 päeva keskmine 07 Oct 182
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/010-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 Oct kuni 10 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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