Vaata neljapäev, 25 oktoober 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 298 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Oct 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar Activity was at high levels. Region 9672
(S18W27) produced a X1/3B flare at 25/1502 UTC with associated Type
II (est. velocity 900 km/s) and Type IV events observed. SOHO/LASCO
imagery indicate a full halo CME with a plane of sky speed of 884
km/s. Region 9672 also produced three minor C-class flares. Region
9678 (N08E20) has grown significantly in the last 24 hours. This
region has increased in area coverage, spot count, and magnetic
complexity to 300 millionths, 35 spots, and Beta-Gamma-Delta
configuration, respectively. Other activity on the disc was six
minor C-class flares most of which came from Region 9672 and 9678.
New Region 9681 (S25E05) and Region 9682 (N09E70) were numbered
today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance for an isolated high condition.
Region 9672 and Region 9678 both have the potential of producing a
major flare. Both of these regions are active and magnetically
complex. New Region 9682 is just rotating on to the disc but
already appears to be a large and potentially complex region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. Shock arrival
from the two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)
occurred at 25/0850 UTC with a sudden impulse of 22 nT recorded on
the Boulder magnetometer. A north directed Bz component to the
interplanetary magnetic field resulted in only unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to major storm levels. Quiet to active
levels are expected on day one of the period. Analysis of the
X1/3B full halo CME on 25/1502 UTC indicates that shock arrival is
expected late on day two or early on day three of the period. Shock
arrival is expected to produce unsettled to minor storm levels for
day two and three of the period. Isolated major storm levels are
possible particularly at higher latitudes.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Octkuni 28 Oct
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Oct 239 Prognoositud 26 Oct-28 Oct 230/225/220 90 päeva keskmine 25 Oct 196
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Oct 004/003 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Oct 006/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct 008/010-018/020-025/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Oct kuni 28 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 15% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 35% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 20% | 20% |
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