Vaata kolmapäev, 24 oktoober 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 297 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 Oct 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare
was a C6/Sf from Region 9678 (N07E34) at 24/1841 UTC. This region
has increased in area (140 millionths), spot count (22) and magnetic
complexity (beta-gamma). Region 9672 (S19W13) has increased in
arial coverage to 490 millionth, increased spot count to 26 and
maintains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. This region
has produced minor C-class flares and has the potential for a major
flare. Region 9669 (N14W51) also produced minor C-class flares.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels with a chance of an isolated high level
condition. Region 9672 continues to have a good chance of producing
a major flare. Region 9678 also has the potential for a major
flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels. The shock arrival from the
two CMEs (M6/2N on 22/1502 UTC and X1/2B on 22/1759 UTC)) appears to
have lower shock velocity than expected. No shock signature was
observed from the NASA ACE/EPAM, MAG, SWEPAM instruments as of the
time of this forecast issue. Greater than 10 MeV protons were
elevated but continued slow decay.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Further analysis of
the expected CME shock combined with the lack of shock signature by
ground and space based instruments indicates that the shock arrival
is expected on day one or even early on day two of the period.
Shock arrival is expected to result in active to minor storm levels.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to return to quiet to unsettled
conditions by day three. Greater than 10 MeV protons are expected
to remain elevated but continue to decay throughout the period
barring a major flare event.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 Octkuni 27 Oct
| Klass M | 80% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 Oct 239 Prognoositud 25 Oct-27 Oct 225/220/215 90 päeva keskmine 24 Oct 194
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 23 Oct 010/015 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 24 Oct 008/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 030/040-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 Oct kuni 27 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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