Vaata laupäev, 20 oktoober 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Oct 20 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 293 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 20 Oct 2001 ::::::CORRECTED COPY:::::::IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9658
(S15W73) produced an M3/1f flare at 20/2325 UTC and associated
discrete frequency radio bursts. Other activity was centered around
Region's 9661 (N15W48) and 9670 (S19E19). Both of these regions
produced minor C-class flares though the course of the period.
Region 9661 was generally stable and has shown gradual decay as the
magnetic delta configuration is no longer apparent in regions spot
group. Two new regions were numbered today, Region 9675 (S14E69),
and Region 9676 (N13E70).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9661 still remains capable of
producing an M-class or isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 19-2100Z kuni 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to unsettled levels.
Brief active conditions were observed at both the middle and high
latitudes in the 20/1200-1500 UTC period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit passed the 10 pfu threshold at
19/2225 UTC, reached a maximum of 11 pfu at 19/2235 UTC. The short
lived 10 MeV proton event ended at 19/2255 UTC though flux levels
remained elevated at time of bulletin issue.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels with the possibility
of isolated major storm conditions late on day one and through day
two of the period. Analysis of the full halo CME, on LASCO imagery
(X1/2b flare at 19/0105 UTC from Region 9661), indicated shock
arrival late on day one or early on day two. A second full halo CME
(X1/2b flare at 19/1630 UTC from Region 9661) is expected to arrive
late on day two of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
levels from geosynchronous orbit could remain elevated through first
day of the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 21 Octkuni 23 Oct
| Klass M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 20 Oct 245 Prognoositud 21 Oct-23 Oct 245/240/235 90 päeva keskmine 20 Oct 190
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/008 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 20 Oct ???/??? Prognoositud Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 025/030-030/035-015/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 21 Oct kuni 23 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 55% | 55% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 55% | 55% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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