Vaata pühapäev, 30 september 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Sep 30 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 273 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Sep 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9628
(S17W76) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 30/1141 UTC
associated with minor discrete frequency radio emission. Region 9628
may have decayed a bit as it approached the west limb, but remained
large and complex. Decay was also noted in Region 9632 (S18W61) as
its large interior spot mass began to split, which may have
dissipated the magnetic delta structure contained therein.
Nonetheless, this region remained large and complex. Region 9636
(N14W15), a reverse-polarity sunspot group, showed gradual
development during the day. It was moderate in size and complexity
as it produced isolated subflares, none of which were associated
with significant X-ray or radio emission.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated M-class flares will be possible from
Regions 9628, 9632, and 9636. Regions 9628 and 9632 each could
produce an isolated major flare before they rotate out of view on 01
and 02 October, respectively.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
Minor storm levels occurred globally during 29/2100 - 2400 UTC
following a sustained period of southward IMF Bz (as measured by
NASA's ACE spacecraft). Activity decreased to quiet to unsettled
levels during 30/0000 - 1500 UTC, then increased to active levels
for the rest of the period. An interplanetary shock passed the ACE
spacecraft at 30/1848 UTC. The source for this shock may have been a
CME that followed a long-duration M3/2n flare from Region 9636 at
28/0830 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV event that began at 24/1215 UTC
ended at 30/1710 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Active geomagnetic conditions
will be possible during 01 - 02 October due to recent CME activity.
Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels
on 03 October. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare from
Region 9628 or 9632 during the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 01 Octkuni 03 Oct
| Klass M | 80% | 75% | 70% |
| Klass X | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Prooton | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Sep 236 Prognoositud 01 Oct-03 Oct 230/225/225 90 päeva keskmine 30 Sep 176
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Sep 019/021 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Sep 012/012 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 020/015-015/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 01 Oct kuni 03 Oct
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
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