Vaata teisipäev, 11 september 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Sep 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 254 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Sep 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Several M-class
flares occurred during the period. Available optical imagery
suggests that newly numbered Region 9616 (S12E80) rotating on to the
east limb was the source of the largest event (M4/Sf at 11/2036
UTC), as well as an earlier M1 flare at 0704 UTC. An M2 flare at
11/0111 UTC appears to have emerged from Region 9608 (S27W07),
which, along with Region 9610 (S14E08), also produced several lesser
C-class flares during the period.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels for the next three days. All regions
discussed in section 1A above appear to be potential sources for
isolated major flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. Onset of high
speed stream effects appear to have developed from about 11/1200 UTC
through the end of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions for the first two
days of the forecast period. A combination of coronal hole high
speed stream effects, and the expected arrival of an interplanetary
shock from CME activity on 9 September, are anticipated to keep
geomagnetic activity elevated for the next two days. Isolated minor
storm conditions are possible at higher latitudes. Conditions are
expected to be quiet to unsettled by day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Sepkuni 14 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Sep 250 Prognoositud 12 Sep-14 Sep 245/235/235 90 päeva keskmine 11 Sep 163
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Sep 011/010 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 015/020-015/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Sep kuni 14 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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