Vaata neljapäev, 30 august 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Aug 30 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 242 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 30 Aug 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9591 (S20W33)
produced an M1/2n flare at 30/1757 UTC. This region retains a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and is showing
imminent signs of producing a possible major flare. Former Region
9600 merged with Region 9601 to produce a beta-gamma-delta group
located at (N14E69). This region produced a M3/Sf with an
accompanying Type II radio sweep (1500 km/s) at 30/2038 UTC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing major flares
during the forecast period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 29-2100Z kuni 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. A small
solar wind shock was recorded by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
1330 UTC. This corresponding shock arrival at earth produced a
sudden impulse at the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 30/1413 UTC. This
minor shock produced isolated active conditions at mid and high
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day of the forecast
period with active conditions expected on the second and third day
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 31 Augkuni 02 Sep
| Klass M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Klass X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Prooton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 30 Aug 199 Prognoositud 31 Aug-02 Sep 205/210/210 90 päeva keskmine 30 Aug 156
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/013 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 31 Aug kuni 02 Sep
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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