Vaata reede, 10 august 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Aug 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 222 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 Aug 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9562 (N05W82) produced
a C8/Sf event at 10/0136 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep.
A new region was numbered today as Region 9575 (S03E04). The LASCO
images from yesterday observed a partial halo coronal mass ejection.
The possible cause was a North-South filament channel eruption
observed on EIT images at 10/0936 UTC close to central meridian.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible from several
regions on the disk.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 10/1020 UTC with a peak flux observed at
10/1635 UTC of 17 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
actual source of the event is not currently known as several
possibilities exists.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 11 August. Disturbed
conditions are expected on 12th and 13th of August due to a high
speed coronal hole flow with minor to major storm conditions
possible as a result of the CME on 09 August. The greater than 10
MeV protons should remain enhanced through the period with a chance
of exceeding threshold on 12 August due to the CME passage.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 Augkuni 13 Aug
| Klass M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 Aug 160 Prognoositud 11 Aug-13 Aug 155/150/145 90 päeva keskmine 10 Aug 150
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 09 Aug 008/010 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/009 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/010-040/040-030/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 Aug kuni 13 Aug
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 40% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 30% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 20% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 45% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 20% | 15% |
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