Vaata esmaspäev, 4 juuni 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Jun 04 2200 UTC
Valminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga

Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 155 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 Jun 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9488 (S18E48) produced an M2/2b flare with associated tenflare of 210 sfu at 04/0812 UTC. This region also produced several lesser flares during the period, and now exhibits increased magnetic complexity, currently in a Cko/beta-gamma configuration. Another event of note occurred in spotless Region 9474 (N22W64) at 04/1633 UTC, when a C3/Sf flare and associated Type-II radio sweep was observed, along with a small, nearby filament disappearance. Some enhancement in 10MeV proton flux was observed following this event, indicating a well-connected location for this activity, though not expected to result in a proton event. CME activity was observed in association with today's events, but not appearing earth-directed.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 9488 is a likely source of more M-class activity as it continues to develop, along with Region 9484 (S06W06), which remains magnetically complex and capable of producing moderate flares.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at higher latitudes during 04/0000-0300 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects appeared to end at about 0700 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the first two days of the period. There is a chance for development of coronal hole effects with isolated active periods possible beginning on day three.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 Junkuni 07 Jun
Klass M35%35%35%
Klass X05%05%05%
Prooton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       04 Jun 154
  Prognoositud   05 Jun-07 Jun  160/160/165
  90 päeva keskmine        04 Jun 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 03 Jun  007/011
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 04 Jun  006/012
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 05 Jun-07 Jun  005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 Jun kuni 07 Jun
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%25%
Väike torm05%05%05%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne20%20%25%
Väike torm05%05%10%
Suur-tõsine torm01%01%01%

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