Vaata esmaspäev, 7 mai 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 May 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 127 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 May 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. X-ray flare activity consisted
of mid-sized C-class events from Region 9445 (S25W42). The region
possesses bright plage and a modest degree of magnetic complexity.
The most spectacular events of the day came from behind the west
limb. The LASCO coronagraph saw a dramatic cme moving westward at
about 07/1000 UTC. Somewhat later, another cme was launched in the
same approximate trajectory. This second event may have been related
to flare activity in Region 9445 (C3/Sf at 1220 UTC). Elsewhere, one
new region was numbered, 9452 (S09E67).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9445 may generate an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A
prolonged period of southward IMF, from approximately
06/2200-07/0800 UTC, spawned active to minor storm conditions at mid
and high latitudes. More normal conditions have occurred lately,
with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 07/1915 UTC, and is still in progress. This
activity is thought to be a result of the behind the limb CME seen
to occur near 07/1000 UTC. The maximum greater than 10 MeV flux of
this soft event is 15 pfu at 07/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. This current disturbance should
weaken through the interval. The greater than 10 MeV protons should
slowly subside.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 Maykuni 10 May
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 30% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 May 138 Prognoositud 08 May-10 May 135/130/125 90 päeva keskmine 07 May 169
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 06 May 005/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 07 May 015/016 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May 010/014-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 May kuni 10 May
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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