Vaata reede, 27 aprill 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 27 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 117 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 27 Apr 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9433 (N18W39)
produced an M1/1f flare at 27/1915 UTC along with isolated C-class
subflares. Region 9433 began to gradually decay following
yesterday's M7/2b flare with decreased spot count and penumbral
coverage. However, a magnetic delta configuration persisted in the
trailer portion of the region, where most flare activity has
occurred. Region 9441 (N08E38) produced isolated subflares as it
gradually increased in spot count and penumbral coverage, though it
remained a moderate-sized, simply-structured spot group. New Region
9443 (S10E21), a small simple bipole, was numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Activity is expected to be at moderate
to high levels. Region 9433 is expected to produce mostly low-level
M-class flares. However, it may produce an isolated major flare
during the period.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 26-2100Z kuni 27-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV electron flux became enhanced following
yesterdays M7/2b flare, but did not reach event levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
A geomagnetic disturbance is
expected to commence during the latter half of 28 April and continue
into 29 April following yesterday's M7/2b flare and associated
full-halo CME . Active to major storm levels will be possible during
this disturbance. Mostly unsettled levels are expected during 30
April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux could increase to event
levels on 28 April. Region 9433 may produce a proton flare during
the period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 28 Aprkuni 30 Apr
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 27 Apr 191 Prognoositud 28 Apr-30 Apr 185/180/175 90 päeva keskmine 27 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 26 Apr 008/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 27 Apr 005/008 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr 015/010-040/040-012/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 28 Apr kuni 30 Apr
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 35% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
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