Vaata neljapäev, 5 aprill 2001 arhiivi

Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Apr 05 2200 UTC
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Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne

SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 05 Apr 2001

IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Two major flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The first was a long-duration M8 that peaked at 0922Z, originating from Region 9393 behind the west limb. This flare was associated with a CME which gives every indication of moving in a westward direction, perpendicular to the Earth-Sun line. The second was an M5/2n at 1725Z from Region 9415 (S21E47). This event had an extended maximum and a slow decay profile. An associated CME was just entering the C2 field of view at forecast issue time and did not appear to have any earthward component. Region 9415 appears to have formed a delta configuration in the leader portion of the group. Region 9417 (S08E27) grew rapidly during the last 24 hours and produced an M1/Sn flare at 0834Z. Today's 10.7 cm background flux of 210 SFU had to be estimated due to greatly enhanced radio noise levels occurring with today's long-duration flare activity.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance, however, for additional major flares from Region 9415.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 04-2100Z kuni 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to active during the past 24 hours. The first nine hours of the period were quiet, but activity increased to mostly active from 0600-2100Z. There was a minor storm period at high latitudes from 0900-1200Z. The greater than 10 MeV proton event continues in progress with a continued slow decline in flux levels. The flux at 05/2100Z was 25 pfu.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled tomorrow, with a chance for some isolated active periods. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail for the second and third days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 06 Aprkuni 08 Apr
Klass M75%75%75%
Klass X20%20%20%
Prooton99%20%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
  Vaadeldud       05 Apr 210
  Prognoositud   06 Apr-08 Apr  210/210/205
  90 päeva keskmine        05 Apr 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
  Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 04 Apr  012/015
  Hinnanguline     Afr/Ap 05 Apr  015/015
  Prognoositud    Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr  015/015-012/008-012/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 06 Apr kuni 08 Apr
A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%20%
Väike torm15%10%10%
Suur-tõsine torm10%05%05%
B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel
Aktiivne30%25%20%
Väike torm20%15%10%
Suur-tõsine torm15%10%10%

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