Vaata reede, 9 märts 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Mar 09 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 068 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 09 Mar 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. The largest event of
the day was an M1/1b flare from Region 9368 (N26W44) at 09/0157 UTC.
A long duration M1 flare also occurred at 09/1028 UTC, but without
definitive optical correlation. Possible sources indicated by EIT
imagery include east and west limb activity as well as Region 9370
(N11W24), but LASCO data indicate no associated CME. Newly numbered
and rapidly developing Region 9372 (S37W50) produced several C-class
flares, the largest a C7/Sf at 09/2027 UTC. Region 9373 (S07E71)
was also numbered today.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Active regions noted in section 1A above are all
possible sources of isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 08-2100Z kuni 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater-than-2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit were moderately enhanced.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Isolated active and minor storm periods are possible on days two and
three, primarily due to the expected influence of a recurrent
coronal hole. There is also a small chance for peripheral transient
effects from the CME activity of 8 March during the same period.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 10 Markuni 12 Mar
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 09 Mar 161 Prognoositud 10 Mar-12 Mar 165/165/165 90 päeva keskmine 09 Mar 163
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 08 Mar 007/006 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 09 Mar 005/006 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 10 Mar-12 Mar 005/007-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 10 Mar kuni 12 Mar
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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