Vaata pühapäev, 11 veebruar 2001 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2001 Feb 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 042 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 Feb 2001IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z Solar activity continued low. A C6/1f flare erupted
near the location of spotless plage 9346 (N18W80), at 0123 UTC. A
type II sweep and a halo CME occurred in conjunction with the event.
Region 9338 (S20W28) was still the brightest region in h-alpha, and
produced occasional C-class events. Some minor surging is occurring
at west limb near where Region 9330 (N22W91) is transiting. At east
limb, more impressive surging was seen to accompany the arrival of
newly numbered Region 9350 (N18E69).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet to unsettled. However,
brief active conditions occurred from 0600-0900 UTC at Boulder from
a short-lived substorm. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit began about 0600 UTC, following
the C6 event at 0123 UTC. The particle increase reached the 1 pfu
level, most recently at 1025 UTC, before the slow decay now
occurring, commenced.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. A glancing blow from today's halo
CME is anticipated mid-to-late in the forecast period, but the
impact on the field should be slight. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux should return to background levels during the next 24
hours.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 Febkuni 14 Feb
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 Feb 151 Prognoositud 12 Feb-14 Feb 150/150/155 90 päeva keskmine 11 Feb 171
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 10 Feb 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 11 Feb 007/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 12 Feb-14 Feb 005/005-005/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 Feb kuni 14 Feb
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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