Vaata esmaspäev, 25 detsember 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Dec 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 360 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 Dec 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9283 (S12E39)
produced two events of equal magnitude, C5/Sf, representing the
greatest activity for the period. The first was in progress at the
beginning of the period, peaking at 24/2101 UTC, and the second
occurred at 25/1600 UTC. Other activity included several lesser
C-class flares from Region 9283, and a C2/Sf from Region 9280
(N09W04). Optical reports of filament disruptions near S36W45 and
N30W60 were received (at 25/0432 and 25/1213 UTC, respectively), and
while no correlated SOHO/LASCO observations are available at
present, a lack of corresponding radio activity suggests no
significant associated CMEs. New Region 9287 (S16E60) was numbered
today. Also of note - a partial solar eclipse occurred over most of
North America today, from 25/1615 to 1815 UTC, with only minor
impacts on solar optical and radio observation sites.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 9280 and 9283 are the most likely sources for
isolated M-class activity.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 Deckuni 28 Dec
| Klass M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 Dec 187 Prognoositud 26 Dec-28 Dec 190/190/185 90 päeva keskmine 25 Dec 174
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 24 Dec 004/005 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 25 Dec 007/007 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 010/010-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 Dec kuni 28 Dec
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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