Vaata pühapäev, 26 november 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Nov 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 331 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 Nov 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z Solar activity remained high. Region 9236 (N24W38)
produced an X4/2b at 26/1648 UTC. This flare included a Type II
radio sweep (1000 km/s estimated drift speed) and a 700 sfu radio
burst at 2695 MHz. This region also generated an M2/1f flare at
26/0308 UTC and several C-class subflares. The sunspot group remains
large and magnetically complex. Other disk regions were relatively
quiet.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Region 9236 is capable of producing another major flare.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
first of the expected CME's arrived at ACE at 26/0500 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress. A new maximum
of 923 pfu was observed at 26/1955 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV
protons exceeded the event threshold at 26/1640 UTC and reached a
peak of 1.2 pfu at 26/1650 UTC. These particles have since dropped
below event level.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at minor to major storm levels during the next 48
hours in response to the flare/CME activity of the last few days.
The greater than 10 MeV event is expected to remain in progress for
at least the next 24 hours. Another 100 MeV event is possible if
Region 9236 produces another significant flare.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 Novkuni 29 Nov
| Klass M | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| Klass X | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Prooton | 99% | 75% | 50% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 Nov 202 Prognoositud 27 Nov-29 Nov 205/205/200 90 päeva keskmine 26 Nov 175
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 25 Nov 004/007 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 26 Nov 020/025 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov 050/060-030/045-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 Nov kuni 29 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 05% | 20% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 40% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 50% | 30% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 40% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 60% | 35% | 05% |
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