Vaata pühapäev, 29 oktoober 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Oct 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 303 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 Oct 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 9209
(S24E21) showed gradual development with an increase in both
penumbral coverage and magnetic complexity. It produced a M4/2B
flare at 29/0157 UTC associated with 1800 sfu Tenflare, Type II and
IV radio sweeps, and a 9-degree filament disappearance. Further
analysis is required to determine if an Earth-directed CME
accompanied this flare. Regions 9212 (N08E61) and 9214 (S11E55)
produced isolated C-class subflares. Both regions showed a slight
degree of magnetic complexity. New Regions 9215 (N20W57) and 9216
(N17W07) were numbered.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9209 is expected to produce isolated M-class
flares. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this
region.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity varied from unsettled to minor storm
levels. Minor storm levels were observed until 29/1200 UTC due to
sustained southward IMF Bz. Unsettled to active levels occurred
during the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled during the first day.
Active conditions are possible during the last two days in response
to today's M4 flare.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 Octkuni 01 Nov
| Klass M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 Oct 187 Prognoositud 30 Oct-01 Nov 190/195/200 90 päeva keskmine 29 Oct 170
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
Vaadeldud Afr/Ap 28 Oct 017/019 Hinnanguline Afr/Ap 29 Oct 026/028 Prognoositud Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 012/018-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 Oct kuni 01 Nov
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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