Vaata esmaspäev, 25 september 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Sep 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 269 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 SEP 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9166 (S12W70)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N FLARE AT 25/0053Z AND SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS FLARES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THIS REGION HAS UNDERWENT SLOW DECAY OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS, BUT MAINTAINS MODERATE COMPLEXITY. REGION 9169
(N11W22) PRODUCED AN M1 FLARE AT 25/0215Z WITH MODERATE CENTIMETRIC
BURSTS INCLUDING A 450SFU TENFLARE. A CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED. SOME
DECAY WAS NOTED IN THIS LARGE AND MODERATELY COMPLEX REGION WHICH
NOW MEASURES 1400 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 9166 AND 9169 WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE LIKELY.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SOUTHWARD BZ AND ENHANCED SOLAR WIND SPEED PRODUCED OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WERE AT MOSTLY MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL
ACTIVE PERIODS ON DAY ONE. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO FROM AN EXPECTED CME PASSAGE FROM TODAY'S M1
FLARE IN REGION 9169 AT 02/0215Z. A RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY DAY THREE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 SEPkuni 28 SEP
| Klass M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 SEP 226 Prognoositud 26 SEP-28 SEP 220/210/200 90 päeva keskmine 25 SEP 180
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 SEP 009/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 SEP 017/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 SEP-28 SEP 015/015-020/020-012/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 SEP kuni 28 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 50% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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