Vaata esmaspäev, 11 september 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Sep 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 255 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 SEP 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9154 (S17W91) WAS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF SEVERAL LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES AS IT APPROACHED
THE WEST LIMB. THE LARGEST WAS A C4/SF AT 11/0715Z. REGION 9158
(N29E19), UNIMPRESSIVE NOW IN WHITE LIGHT WITH NO SPOTS VISIBLE,
PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 11/1810Z. SEVERAL SEGMENTS OF A LARGE
FILAMENT IN THE NW QUADRANT HAVE DISAPPEARED, BUT THERE IS NO
INDICATION OF A CME, ON GROUND OR SPACE-BASED IMAGERY. NEW REGION
9161 (N06E04) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 9154 STILL MAINTAINS BEST POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AS
IT ROTATES AROUND THE WEST LIMB. WITH REGION 9154'S DEPARTURE, SOLAR
ACTIVITY MAY REACH VERY LOW LEVELS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE
PERIODS ON DAY ONE. EFFECTS FROM THE 09 AUG, M1/1N FLARE ARE
POSSIBLE ON DAY ONE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 SEPkuni 14 SEP
| Klass M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 SEP 135 Prognoositud 12 SEP-14 SEP 130/125/125 90 päeva keskmine 11 SEP 179
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 SEP 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 SEP 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 SEP-14 SEP 012/012-008/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 SEP kuni 14 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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