Vaata reede, 25 august 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Aug 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 238 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 AUG 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 9143 (S19E59)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 25/1435Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
II/IV AND A 130 SFU BURST AT 2695 MHZ. A LARGE DENSE MASS EJECTION
FOLLOWED THE EVENT AND WAS SEEN TO PROPAGATE PRIMARILY OFF THE EAST
LIMB NEAR THE EQUATOR. PRIOR TO THIS EVENT, REGION 9143 WAS
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. A LARGE FILAMENT NEAR N37W21 ERUPTED BETWEEN
25/0955-1123Z. THIS FILAMENT ELEVATED AND BECAME MORE DENSE FOR AT
LEAST A DAY BEFORE THE ERUPTION. A SMALL REGION BEGAN TO EMERGE
RAPIDLY NEAR N25E14 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 9144.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
LOW. OBVIOUSLY, REGION 9143 IS CAPABLE OF GENERATING M-CLASS
EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF OBVIOUS GROWTH AND MAGNETIC SIMPLICITY
ARGUE FOR ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS STEADY NEAR
400 KM/S.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AT THIS
TIME, THE MASS EJECTION OBSERVED TODAY IS NOT PROJECTED TO IMPACT
THE EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 AUGkuni 28 AUG
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 AUG 133 Prognoositud 26 AUG-28 AUG 135/137/140 90 päeva keskmine 25 AUG 181
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG 007/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG 003/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG 005/008-005/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 AUG kuni 28 AUG
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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