Vaata kolmapäev, 14 juuni 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Jun 14 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 166 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 14 JUN 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C4/SN FLARE AT 14/0149Z FROM REGION 9042 (N20E58).
THIS REGION NOW APPEARS TO BE A MODERATELY LARGE SUNSPOT GROUP WITH
SOME MIXED MAGNETIC FIELDS IN THE TRAILER. REGION 9033 (N25W35)
GENERATED A C1/1F FLARE AT 14/1349Z WITH A SHORT-LIVED TYPE II.
THIS REGION SHOWED SLIGHT DECAY DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED
MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. A MODERATE SIZE H CLASS SUNSPOT WITH
MODERATELY BRIGHT X-RAY EMISSION APPEARED AT N15E87 AND WAS NUMBERED
AS NEW REGION 9046. NEW REGION 9045 (S15E20) EMERGED NEAR THE NORTH
END OF A LARGE FILAMENT.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS.
THE OCCURRENCE OF AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE
FILAMENT NEAR NEW REGION 9045 MAY ERUPT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 13-2100Z kuni 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR
WIND PARAMETERS WERE UNUSUAL IN THAT VELOCITY WAS NEAR NOMINAL BUT
TOTAL FIELD STRENGTH WAS APPROXIMATELY 15 NT AND DENSITY WAS HIGH AT
APPROXIMATELY 55 P/CC. THIS COULD BE THE TRAILING END OF THE MASS
EJECTION THAT IMPACTED THE EARTH LATE ON 12 JUN.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE EARLY PART OF 15 JUN. QUIET TO UNSETTLED
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE ON 15 JUN THROUGH 17 JUN. THERE IS A
SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 15 JUNkuni 17 JUN
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 14 JUN 201 Prognoositud 15 JUN-17 JUN 195/192/190 90 päeva keskmine 14 JUN 188
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUN 010/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUN 017/019 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUN-17 JUN 012/012-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 15 JUN kuni 17 JUN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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