Vaata kolmapäev, 10 mai 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 May 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 131 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 MAY 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF
THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH THE ERUPTION OF A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT FROM
N14E16. IT WAS SOON FOLLOWED BY A LONG-DURATION 2N/C8 FLARE FROM
REGION 8990 (N14E20) AT 10/1941Z AS WELL AS TYPE II (680 KM/S) AND
TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8993 (S23W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY,
CORRECTING AN EARLIER ERROR. THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IT WAS
INCORRECTLY REFERRED TO AS REGION 8986, WHICH HAD ACTUALLY
DISSIPATED. REGION 8994 (N11W01) WAS ALSO NUMBERED. TODAY'S
PENTICTON 10CM FLUX VALUE WAS LIKELY FLARE ENHANCED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N16W01), 8990 (N14E20), AND 8991
(N15E46) ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THE ONSET OF A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED LATE 11 MAY TO
EARLY 12 MAY DUE TO A FILAMENT ERUPTION AND PARTIAL HALO CME
OBSERVED ON 8 MAY. ALTHOUGH, AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO INDICATION
OF AN APPROACHING SHOCK IN THE ACE DATA. EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT
CORONAL HOLE WILL EXTEND THE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
THROUGH 13 MAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 MAYkuni 13 MAY
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 MAY 179 Prognoositud 11 MAY-13 MAY 165/170/175 90 päeva keskmine 10 MAY 186
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY 007/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY 005/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY 015/015-030/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 MAY kuni 13 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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