Vaata teisipäev, 11 aprill 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Apr 11 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 102 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 11 APR 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8948 (S15W12) PRODUCED
TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/1N AT 1810Z. THE REGION PRODUCED
ADDITIONAL SUBFLARES AND CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE REGION ON THE
DISK. THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW DECLINE AND SIMPLIFICATION IN THE REGION
AND THE DELTA CONFIGURATION OF THE LAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO BE GONE.
NEW REGION 8958 (N17E66) ROTATED IN TO VIEW TODAY AS A SIMPLE B-TYPE
REGION.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A FAIR-TO-GOOD CHANCE FOR CONTINUED M-CLASS
FLARES FROM REGION 8948. HOWEVER, THE RECENT DECLINING TREND IN THE
REGION WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN INTENSITY AND
FREQUENCY OF FLARES FROM THIS REGION.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 10-2100Z kuni 11-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A MORE
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF YESTERDAY'S CORONAGRAPH DATA SHOWED THAT IN
FACT A VERY FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION COULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE M3 FLARE OF 9 APRIL FROM 8948. WHILE FAR FROM A CERTAINTY,
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR THE CME TO PASS BY EARTH AND ENHANCE
ACTIVITY LEVELS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 12 APRkuni 14 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 11 APR 182 Prognoositud 12 APR-14 APR 185/190/190 90 päeva keskmine 11 APR 186
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 APR 014/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 APR 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 APR-14 APR 020/020-020/015-010/007
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 12 APR kuni 14 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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