Vaata teisipäev, 4 aprill 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Apr 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 095 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 APR 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT
04/0132UT. THIS EVENT WAS NOT REPORTED BY GROUND BASED
OBSERVATORIES, BUT IS COINCIDENT WITH ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8948
(S15E70) AS SEEN BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT. REGION 8948 CONTAINS A CSO
SPOT GROUP AND IS IN THE AREA OF RETURNING REGION 8906. REGION 8933
(N17W70) PRODUCED A C9/2F FLARE AT 04/1541UT. THIS EVENT WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY A DSF AND IS PROBABLY THE SOURCE OF THE INCREASE OF
ENERGETIC PARTICLES SEEN AT THE GOES SPACECRAFT STARTING AROUND
04/1700UT.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF M FLARES FROM REGIONS 8933, 8936,
AND 8948. REGION 8910 (N11 L=069) IS DUE TO RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB
ON 7 APRIL AND COULD INCREASE THE LEVEL OF ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. A K=6
WAS OBSERVED AT BOULDER FOR THE 0300UT TIME PERIOD. THE FIELD
RETURNED TO QUIET LEVELS BY 0900UT ONLY TO BECOME ACTIVE AGAIN BY
1500UT. SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT INDICATE THAT THIS
ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH CHANGES IN THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC
FIELD. BZ BEGAN THE DAY AROUND -7NT, TURNED POSITIVE (10NT) AROUND
0200UT AND RETURNED NEGATIVE (-7NT) AFTER 1100UT. FLUXES OF >10MEV
PROTONS BEGAN TO INCREASE AFTER 04/1700UT, AND REACH 10PFU AT
04/2030UT. THIS INCREASE IS PROBABLY RELATED TO THE C9 FLARE FROM
REGION 8933 AS REPORTED IN PART 1A.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 APRkuni 07 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 APR 207 Prognoositud 05 APR-07 APR 205/200/200 90 päeva keskmine 04 APR 184
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR 012/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR 022/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR 010/015-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 APR kuni 07 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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