Vaata reede, 25 veebruar 2000 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 2000 Feb 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 056 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 FEB 2000IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C8/SF AT 25/0919Z FROM REGION 8888
(N36E43). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT BUT WAS
DIRECTED OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. OTHER THAN THIS EVENT, THE REGION WAS
MOSTLY STABLE DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 8889 (N21E59) SHOWED ITSELF
AS A MODERATE SIZE E CLASS GROUP AND PRODUCED SMALL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A LARGE NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AT S13E72
AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8891. THIS AREA WAS PREDOMINANTLY STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD. THERE WERE ALSO HIGH LATITUDE MASS EJECTIONS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD RETURN TO
MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGIONS 8891,
8889, AND TO A LESSER DEGREE, REGION 8888. THERE IS A SLIGHT BUT
GROWING POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGIONS 8891 AND 8889.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. ISOLATED
PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING WERE OBSERVED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD BUT REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE 650 KM/S.
ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH AROUND
25/1710Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MINOR
STORMING FOR 26 FEB. THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY DECLINE
ON 27-28 FEB. QUIET TO OCCASIONALLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THAT PERIOD. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
FOR A MINIMUM OF THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 FEBkuni 28 FEB
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 FEB 210 Prognoositud 26 FEB-28 FEB 213/215/218 90 päeva keskmine 25 FEB 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 FEB 020/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 FEB 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 FEB-28 FEB 018/018-012/015-008/013
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 FEB kuni 28 FEB
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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