Vaata esmaspäev, 22 november 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Nov 22 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 326 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 22 NOV 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 8765
(S13W72) SHOWED GRADUAL DECAY AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB, BUT
REMAINED LARGE AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. IT PRODUCED ISOLATED
SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD INCLUDING A C8/SF AT 22/1217Z. REGION
8771 (S16W11) ALSO PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. IT SHOWED GRADUAL
GROWTH AND REMAINED MODERATE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION
8776 (S29W01) GREW GRADUALLY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES, BUT
REMAINED A SIMPLY-STRUCTURED BIPOLE. REGION 8766 (N17W49) CONTINUED
TO SLOWLY DECAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8765 AND 8771 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE
FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 21-2100Z kuni 22-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE
LEVELS OCCURRED DURING 22/1100 - 1400Z IN RESPONSE TO A PERIOD OF
SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD IMF BZ. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
DECLINED TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO (BRIEFLY) ACTIVE LEVELS DURING THE FIRST
DAY DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A PROTON EVENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT, SHOULD A MAJOR
FLARE OCCUR FROM REGIONS 8765 OR 8771.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 23 NOVkuni 25 NOV
| Klass M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Klass X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 22 NOV 192 Prognoositud 23 NOV-25 NOV 185/170/165 90 päeva keskmine 22 NOV 167
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 NOV 011/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 NOV 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 NOV-25 NOV 015/018-012/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 23 NOV kuni 25 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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