Vaata kolmapäev, 17 november 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Nov 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 321 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 NOV 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. TWO M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES WERE
OBSERVED. THE LARGEST, AN M7/2B FLARE FROM REGION 8766 (N17E21),
OCCURRED AT 0957Z. TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS, A 390 SFU TENFLARE,
AND OTHER DISCRETE RADIO BURSTS ACCOMPANIED THIS EVENT. THE SECOND
FLARE, AN M2/1N FROM REGION 8765 (S11E08), PEAKED AT 16/2124Z. THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SAW NUMEROUS C-CLASS SUBFLARES SUPERIMPOSED
ON AN ELEVATED BACKGROUND FLUX LEVEL OF NEARLY C2. REGION 8765
ATTAINED A WHITE-LIGHT AREA OF 1190 MILLIONTHS AND REMAINS A
BETA-GAMMA-DELTA GROUP. NEW REGION 8771 (S14W33) WAS NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. BOTH REGIONS 8765 AND 8766 HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE A MAJOR PROTON PRODUCING FLARE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM REGION 8768.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
BY DAYS TWO AND THREE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO CME EFFECTS. PARTIAL HALO CMES WERE OBSERVED ON SOHO/LASCO
IMAGERY YESTERDAY AND TODAY'S FLARE ACTIVITY PRODUCED RADIO CME
SIGNATURES.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 NOVkuni 20 NOV
| Klass M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 NOV 221 Prognoositud 18 NOV-20 NOV 215/200/195 90 päeva keskmine 17 NOV 165
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 NOV 011/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 NOV 011/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 NOV-20 NOV 012/012-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 NOV kuni 20 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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