Vaata teisipäev, 7 september 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Sep 07 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 250 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 07 SEP 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO C-CLASS FLARES
WHICH WERE NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY: A C1.7 AT 06/2112Z AND A C1.2 AT
07/1358Z. REGION 8690 (N13E60) HAS ROTATED MORE FULLY INTO VIEW AND
IS AN 80 MILLIONTHS D-TYPE GROUP. A NEW REGION 8691 EMERGED NEAR
S30W32 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. NEW REGIONS 8692 (S25E74) AND 8693
(N12E79) ROTATED INTO VIEW. BOTH OF THESE GROUPS SHOW SPOTS WITH
PENUMBRA.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 06-2100Z kuni 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACE
REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THE ARRIVAL OF A
HIGH-SPEED, LOW DENSITY SOLAR WIND STREAM AT ABOUT 07/0900Z. THE
HIGH VELOCITY AND FREQUENTLY OSCILLATING BZ COMPONENT OF THE
MAGNETIC FIELD RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TO UNSETTLED TO
ACTIVE LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A
FAIR CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
HOWEVER, IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 08 SEPkuni 10 SEP
| Klass M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 07 SEP 112 Prognoositud 08 SEP-10 SEP 115/115/115 90 päeva keskmine 07 SEP 166
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 SEP 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 SEP 015/013 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 SEP-10 SEP 015/013-012/013-010/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 08 SEP kuni 10 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 35% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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