Vaata pühapäev, 29 august 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Aug 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 241 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 AUG 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS A C9/1N FROM REGION 8681 (N22W03) AT 29/1731Z. THIS
REGION CONTINUED TO EMERGE RAPIDLY AND EXHIBITED AN ABNORMAL
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF A NEGATIVE ISLAND SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE
POLARITY. REGION 8674 (S23W40) STABILIZED. THE LARGEST EVENT IT
PRODUCED WAS A C4/SF AT 29/1229Z. THIS REGION MAINTAINED THE
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY IT HAS EXHIBITED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
BUT IT SHOWED NO REGION DYNAMICS SUCH AS GROWTH AND SPOT PROPER
MOTION. THE X1 FLARE AT 28/1805Z PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS
EJECTION THAT MOVED SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
MODERATE. REGION 8674 RETAINS THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING M-CLASS
AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL X-CLASS EVENTS. HOWEVER, THE FREQUENCY OF
EVENTS SHOULD LESSEN AS THIS REGION BEGINS A SLOW PERIOD OF DECAY.
REGION 8681 SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS AND NOW POSSESSES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DECLINED DURING THE PERIOD TO JUST OVER 500 KM/S. ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS WERE HIGH.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NONE OF MANY
RECENT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EARTH
HEAD-ON BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THE FLANKS OF SOME OF THE CMES COULD
REACH THE EARTH. THEREFORE, ISOLATED ACTIVE, TO POSSIBLY MINOR
STORM, PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. ENERGETIC
ELECTRON FLUXES SHOULD REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS FOR 1-2 MORE DAYS. THE
POSSIBLY EXISTS FOR A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. REGION
8674 IS THE PROBABLE SOURCE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 AUGkuni 01 SEP
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Prooton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 AUG 218 Prognoositud 30 AUG-01 SEP 220/217/197 90 päeva keskmine 29 AUG 168
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG 011/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP 010/012-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 AUG kuni 01 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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