Vaata teisipäev, 17 august 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Aug 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 229 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 AUG 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8668 (N21E28), THE MOST
PROMINENT ON THE DISK, HAD TWO LONG-DURATION C-CLASS FLARES. THE
FIRST, A C2/SF AT 1323Z, LASTED NEARLY 90 MINUTES. THIS EVENT WAS
FOLLOWED SOON AFTER BY A C5/SF AT 1602Z THAT ENDURED FOR NEARLY
THREE AND ONE HALF HOURS. BOTH OF THESE EVENTS WERE RICH IN DISCRETE
RADIO BURSTS ACROSS THE SPECTRUM. REGION 8662 (S16W90) IS SURGING AS
IT TRANSITS THE LIMB.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8668 SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. IF ADDITIONAL
GROWTH OCCURS THERE, M-CLASS EVENTS MAY EVENTUATE.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. A HIGH SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM, REGISTERING BETWEEN 500
AND 700 KM/S, CONTINUES TO BUFFET THE MAGNETOPAUSE. THE FLUX OF
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH
LEVELS FROM APPROXIMATELY 1500 TO 1800Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
EFFECT OF THE HIGH SPEED STREAM ABATES. CONDITIONS SHOULD CALM EVEN
FURTHER THEREAFTER, WITH STRICTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVALENT BY
THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 AUGkuni 20 AUG
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 AUG 141 Prognoositud 18 AUG-20 AUG 150/155/165 90 päeva keskmine 17 AUG 163
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG 025/029 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG 025/035 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG 015/017-010/012-010/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 AUG kuni 20 AUG
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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