Vaata esmaspäev, 26 juuli 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jul 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 207 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 JUL 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENTS OF THE
PERIOD WERE LOW LEVEL C-CLASS BURSTS. REGION 8636 (N21W41) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES, DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE, AND APPEARED TO ONCE
AGAIN SIMPLIFY MAGNETICALLY. REGION 8645 (S27E47) REMAINED
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. REGION 8639 (N38W99) PRODUCED FREQUENT
SURGING FROM BEHIND THE LIMB BUT PRODUCED NO DISCERNIBLE BURSTS.
POST EVENT ANALYSIS OF THE M2 FLARE GENERATED BY THIS REGION AT
25/1338Z INDICATED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THE
FLARE. HOWEVER, IT WAS DETERMINED BY SOHO SCIENTISTS THAT THIS CME
WAS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8636 AND 8645 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD IS DECREASING AS THE REGION SLOWLY
DECAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 JULkuni 29 JUL
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 JUL 172 Prognoositud 27 JUL-29 JUL 172/172/174 90 päeva keskmine 26 JUL 158
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 008/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 008/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 008/007-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 JUL kuni 29 JUL
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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