Vaata laupäev, 26 juuni 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jun 26 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 177 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 26 JUN 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8598 (N23E02)
PRODUCED AN M2/2N AT 0512Z. THE GROUP CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8602 (N17E35) IS ALSO IMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH
BRIGHT, FLUCTUATING PLAGE BUT COULD ONLY PRODUCE A SUBFLARE. REGION
8596 (N22W12) WAS ALSO ACTIVE A CONTRIBUTED A C4/1N FLARE AT 1650Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8598 AND 8602 ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN ACTIVITY
CENTERS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAJOR
FLARE OR PROTON PRODUCING ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8598.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 25-2100Z kuni 26-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT THE
ACE SPACECRAFT AT 0215Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A FEW HOURS OF
MODERATELY NEGATIVE SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY FIELD. A 16 NT SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 0326Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A 12 HOUR PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS. A SECOND SHOCK WAS SEEN
AT ACE AT 1925Z, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 2020Z
WHICH MEASURED 38 NT IN BOULDER. AS OF FORECAST FILE TIME THE
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD WAS ORIENTED NORTHWARDS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
NATURE OF THE PLASMA AND FIELDS BEHIND THE 20/1925Z SHOCK AT ACE IS
CURRENTLY UNKNOWN AND COULD BE GEOEFFECTIVE. THEREFORE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AN
INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY
IN RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION OF 24/1200Z.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 27 JUNkuni 29 JUN
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 26 JUN 200 Prognoositud 27 JUN-29 JUN 205/205/205 90 päeva keskmine 26 JUN 141
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUN 002/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUN 014/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUN-29 JUN 010/012-010/012-015/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 27 JUN kuni 29 JUN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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