Vaata reede, 25 juuni 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jun 25 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 176 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 25 JUN 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C3.4 AT 24/2305Z FROM REGION 8603 (S15E54). REGION 8603 WAS
OTHERWISE QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8598 (N23E13) IS
THE DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK AND PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF TODAY'S
FREQUENT SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. THE SUNSPOT AREA IN THIS REGION HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE REGION'S MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NOT
UNDULY COMPLEX AT THIS TIME. REGION 8604 (N12W68) ALSO PRODUCED A
FEW SUBFLARES TODAY. YESTERDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION THAT OCCURRED AT
ABOUT 24/1200Z WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OBSERVATION OF A PARTIAL HALO
CME BY LASCO.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH ACTIVITY LEVELS.
REGION 8598 IS CONSIDERED TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCE FOR ENERGETIC
FLARES, ESPECIALLY IF SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY DEVELOPS. REGIONS
8603, 8604, AND 8606 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE SOME C-CLASS SUBFLARES TO
SOLAR ACTIVITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 24-2100Z kuni 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
YESTERDAY'S PARTIAL HALO CME MAY ENHANCE ACTIVITY SOME, BEGINNING
LATE ON THE THRID DAY, ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
TRANSIENT IS NOT MOVING DIRECTLY AT THE EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 26 JUNkuni 28 JUN
| Klass M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Klass X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Prooton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 25 JUN 201 Prognoositud 26 JUN-28 JUN 205/210/210 90 päeva keskmine 25 JUN 140
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN 005/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN 005/010-005/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 26 JUN kuni 28 JUN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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