Vaata neljapäev, 29 aprill 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Apr 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 119 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 APR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8524 (N22W15)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 29/1954UT. THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A
FEW C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/SF AT 29/1741UT.
DEVELOPMENT IN THE 8524 AREA HAS MADE IDENTIFICATION OF THE SMALL
SUNSPOT GROUP JUST TO THE SOUTH, REGION 8522 (N17W14), DIFFICULT IF
NOT IMPOSSIBLE. THESE REGIONS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE COMBINED.
NEW REGION 8525 (N15E68) ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB AND HAS
ALREADY PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A C2/SF AT 29/0829UT. THE AREA IS
STILL COMING INTO VIEW BUT DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY
COMPLEX. NEW REGION 8526 (N22E35) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS 8524 AND 8525.
AN ADDITIONAL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8524.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. EFFECTS FROM A HIGH-SPEED STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 APRkuni 02 MAY
| Klass M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 APR 122 Prognoositud 30 APR-02 MAY 125/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 29 APR 128
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 APR 014/019 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 APR 015/025 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 APR-02 MAY 015/025-015/030-015/030
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 APR kuni 02 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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