Vaata pühapäev, 4 aprill 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Apr 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 094 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 APR 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8508 (N18E62) PRODUCED
AN M5/1F X-RAY EVENT AT 04/0528Z. THIS EVENT HAD A 190 SFU RADIO
BURST AT 2695 MHZ. ADDITIONAL DATA SHOW ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THE
SAME TIME IN NEARBY REGION 8507 (N10E44). REGION 8508 ALSO PRODUCED
AN M4/1F EVENT EARLIER DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II
SWEEP AND A SPEED OF 500 KM/S AT 03/2310Z. REGIONS 8504 (S28W03),
8506, (S26W15), 8507, AND 8508 ALL SHOWED MINOR TO MODERATE GROWTH.
ALL OF THESE REGIONS HAVE EXHIBITED NEAR CONTINUOUS SURGING AND
BRIGHTENING.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. SEVERAL REGIONS ARE NOW CAPABLE OF CONTINUED
M-CLASS EVENT PRODUCTION. REGION 8506 APPEARS THE MOST POTENT WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN
2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH
LEVELS AT 04/1420Z THEN DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS AFTER 04/1800Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM
LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD DUE TO AN
ELONGATED CORONAL HOLE IN THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 APRkuni 07 APR
| Klass M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 APR 116 Prognoositud 05 APR-07 APR 125/135/140 90 päeva keskmine 04 APR 134
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR 012/008 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR 014/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR 012/015-012/010-012/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 APR kuni 07 APR
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 02% |
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