Vaata kolmapäev, 13 jaanuar 1999 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1999 Jan 13 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 013 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 13 JAN 1999IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. NINE
C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH REGIONS 8439
(S24E66) AND NEW REGION 8440 (N21E71). THESE REGIONS APPEAR TO BE
FLARING SYMPATHETICALLY. A BRIGHT SURGE OUT TO 0.19R FROM N23E90
(BEHIND REGION 8440) WAS REPORTED BETWEEN 1914-1936 UT. ADDITIONAL
SURGING ON THE EAST LIMB NEAR N20 MAY BE SIGNALING THE RETURN OF ANY
OF SEVERAL REGIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE LIMBS AND DISK WERE QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE BASED ON THE FLARE POTENTIAL IN REGIONS 8439 AND 8440,
AND THE LIKLIHOOD OF THE RETURN OF ACTIVE REGIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST
LIMB OF THE SUN.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 12-2100Z kuni 13-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS. ACTIVITY INCREASED AFTER A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT 1055 UT.
SOLAR WIND DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF A
SHOCK AT 0959 UT THAT WAS FOLLOWED BY ENHANCED, SOUTHWARD
INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELDS (-20 NT). THIS DISTURBANCE MAY HAVE
ORIGINATED ON 9 JANUARY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE
IN THE NORTH CENTER OF THE SUN AND/OR A LONG-DURATION C1 X-RAY
EVENT. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX LEVELS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT, WHICH ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS ON 12 JANUARY, FELL BELOW EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 12/1835 UT.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TOMORROW
AS TODAY'S TRANSIENT SOLAR WIND EVENT COMPLETES ITS PASSAGE BEYOND
EARTH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 14 JANkuni 16 JAN
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 13 JAN 119 Prognoositud 14 JAN-16 JAN 130/140/150 90 päeva keskmine 13 JAN 138
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JAN 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JAN 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JAN-16 JAN 015/015-010/012-010/009
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 14 JAN kuni 16 JAN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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