Vaata teisipäev, 24 november 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 24 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 328 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 24 NOV 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT HIGH LEVELS. REGION 8384
(S26W114) PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE
BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE FLARE WAS AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED X1 AT
24/0220Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP AT 24/0217Z. THE
TYPE II SPEED WAS ESTIMATED AT 400 KM/S. A 470 SFU TENFLARE WAS
ALSO DETECTED DURING THE X1 EVENT. SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED,
LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO DETECTED DURING THE PERIOD. TWO
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8394 (S16W49), AND REGION
8395 (N17E81).
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARE PROBABLILITIES MAY INCREASE AS REGION
8393 (S18E62) AND REGION 8395 ROTATE FURTHER TO THE WEST. THE
LOCATION OF REGION 8395 CORRELATES WELL WITH OLD REGION 8375, WHICH
PRODUCED A MAJOR FLARE AND A SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING ITS LAST
ROTATION.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 23-2100Z kuni 24-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
WAS ENHANCED DURING PART OF THE PERIOD THAT FOLLOWED THE X-CLASS
FLARE EARLY TODAY, AND HAS NOW DECREASED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 25 NOVkuni 27 NOV
| Klass M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 24 NOV 140 Prognoositud 25 NOV-27 NOV 145/145/150 90 päeva keskmine 24 NOV 131
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 NOV 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 NOV 012/011 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 NOV-27 NOV 010/012-010/009-010/009
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 25 NOV kuni 27 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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