Vaata kolmapäev, 4 november 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Nov 04 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 308 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 04 NOV 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 NOVkuni 07 NOV
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 NOV 141 Prognoositud 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 päeva keskmine 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV ???/??? PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 020/???-020/???-010/???
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 NOV kuni 07 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
HAS INCREASED APPRECIABLY SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 8375 (N18W07) HAS
BEEN THE MOST ACTIVE REGION PRODUCING SIX C-CLASS FLARES AS WELL AS
SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES AND ONE 1N OPTICAL FLARE. A FULL HALO CME
WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE AT 04/0418UT. THIS WAS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A C5/SF PRODUCED BY REGION 8375. REGION 8375 IS THE
LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE SUN. CURRENTLY A DAI,
BETA-GAMMA SPOT GROUP. THIS REGION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE
AND THE SPOT COUNT HAS INCREASED FROM 22 TO 28. OTHER ACTIVE REGIONS
ARE 8376 (S27E15), 8378 (N14E63) AND 8379 (S18W28) ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED AN OPTICAL SUBFLARE. REGION 8379 IS A NEW NUMBERED REGION
WITH A 5 SPOT CRO, BETA SPOT GROUP. ONE OTHER REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8380 (S20E65) WITH AN AXX, ALPHA SPOT.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING FROM REGION 8375.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 03-2100Z kuni 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH POSSIBLE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE
CAUSE FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS DUE TO A
PARTIAL HALO CME THAT WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO/SOHO SATELLITE ON
02/1354UT. THIS WAS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C1/N1 FLARE IN REGION 8376
LOCATED AT S25E44 AT THAT TIME. THE FULL HALO CME OBSERVED TODAY AT
04/0418UT COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY LATE ON NOVEMBER
6TH OR ON NOVEMBER 7TH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 05 NOVkuni 07 NOV
| Klass M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 04 NOV 141 Prognoositud 05 NOV-07 NOV 145/150/150 90 päeva keskmine 04 NOV 132
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 NOV 005/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 NOV 7/7 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 NOV-07 NOV 20/12-20/15-15/10
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 05 NOV kuni 07 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 50% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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