Vaata laupäev, 10 oktoober 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Oct 10 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 283 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 10 OCT 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE WAS A C7
AT 1318Z. THE LOCATION ON THE DISK WAS NOT OBSERVED DUE TO WEATHER
LIMITED OBSERVATIONS. REGION 8350 (N19W38) APPEARED TO BE STABLE
DURING THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A SMALL INTRUSION OF LEADER POLARITY
FLUX INTO THE TRAILER PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS PART OF THE GROUP
WAS OBSERVED TO PRODUCE SOME POINT BRIGHTENING ACTIVITY. REGION 8355
(S22E23), THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK (180 MILLIONTHS), WAS STABLE
AND QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGION 8350 SEEMS TO BE LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN OCCASIONAL C-CLASS
FLARE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAGNETIC FIELD STRUCTURE IN REGION
8355 APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT: AN OCCASIONAL C-FLARE IS
LIKELY FROM THIS GROUP AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 09-2100Z kuni 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET. THERE WAS AN ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIOD FROM 0300-0600Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES
ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS TODAY.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 11 OCTkuni 13 OCT
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 10 OCT 121 Prognoositud 11 OCT-13 OCT 125/125/130 90 päeva keskmine 10 OCT 130
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT 010/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT 010/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 11 OCT kuni 13 OCT
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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