Vaata neljapäev, 17 september 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Sep 17 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 260 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 17 SEP 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: REGION 8339 (S17E42), A B-TYPE SPOT
GROUP, AND REGION 8340 (N20E76), A SINGLE H-TYPE SPOT WHICH IS THE
QUIET RETURN OF OLD ACTIVE REGION 8319. REGION 8319 PRODUCED FIVE
M-CLASS FLARES DURING ITS LAST ROTATION. NUMEROUS TYPE III RADIO
SWEEPS WERE REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AS WELL AS A RADIO NOISE
STORM AT 410 MHZ BEGINNING AT 1839 UT. MINOR SURGING ACCOMPANIED THE
EAST LIMB APPEARANCE OF REGION 8340. THE REMAINDER OF THE LIMBS,
AND THE DISK, WERE QUIET.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
BASED ON EXPECTATIONS OF C-CLASS FLARES FROM REGIONS DEVELOPING IN
ACTIVE LONGITUDES IN THE EASTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE. ISOLATED M-CLASS
FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 16-2100Z kuni 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET LEVELS TOMORROW, BUT INCREASE FROM
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS IF THE SOLAR WIND CHANGES FROM ITS PRESENT
STATE OF LOW SPEEDS, NORMAL DENSITIES, AND NORMAL MAGNETIC FIELD
INTENSITIES. HIGHER SPEEDS AND FLUCTUATING MAGNETIC FIELDS
ASSOCIATED SMALL DISAPPEARING FILAMENTS, OR FROM A POSITIVE
NORTHERN CORONAL HOLE SHOULD ARRIVE AT EARTH DURING THE 3-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 18 SEPkuni 20 SEP
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 17 SEP 117 Prognoositud 18 SEP-20 SEP 130/130/135 90 päeva keskmine 17 SEP 127
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP 002/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP 004/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP 005/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 18 SEP kuni 20 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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