Vaata laupäev, 29 august 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Aug 29 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 241 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 29 AUG 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
OBSERVED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE LARGEST OF THESE WAS A C5 AT
1836Z WHICH WAS NOT OBSERVED OPTICALLY. REGION 8307 (N32W52)
CONTRIBUTED AT LEAST ONE OF THE C-CLASS EVENTS AT 1535Z. THE GROUP
WAS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND STABLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION
8319 (N19W29) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD AND
CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SIZE. REGION 8323 (S23E65) ROTATED FURTHER
INTO VIEW TODAY AND APPEARS TO BE A BIPOLAR GROUP WITH PENUMBRA IN
THE LEADER AND TRAILER.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. HOWEVER, EACH OF THE REGIONS 8307, 8319 AND 8323
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS EVENT, SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 28-2100Z kuni 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THERE WERE SOME
ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS AT THE HIGH LATITUDES. ACE REAL-TIME
SOLAR WIND DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW DENSITY, HIGH SPEED STREAM
WITH WAVE-LIKE ACTIVITY IN THE BZ INTERPLANETARY FIELD. VARIATIONS
IN BZ DOWN TO -5 NT ARE UNDOUBTEDLY THE SOURCE OF THE ENHANCED
MAGNETIC ACTIVITY. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES HAVE BEEN
HIGH. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN 24/2355Z ENDED
TODAY AT 29/1210Z.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, DECLINING
TO UNSETTLED TO SLIGHTLY ACTIVE BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 30 AUGkuni 01 SEP
| Klass M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Klass X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Prooton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 29 AUG 147 Prognoositud 30 AUG-01 SEP 150/150/140 90 päeva keskmine 29 AUG 118
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 AUG 026/025 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 AUG 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 AUG-01 SEP 015/015-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 30 AUG kuni 01 SEP
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Väike torm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 50% | 40% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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