SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE NOTABLE FLARES OCCURRED. THE FIRST WAS A C1 PEAKING AT 31/0345Z AND WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE INTENSITY TYPE II/IV SWEEP EVENTS. ALTHOUGH NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED, ENHANCED PLAGE OBSERVED IN REGION 8280 (S24W54) SHORTLY AFTER THIS FLARE MAY SUGGEST ITS ORIGIN. THE SECOND FLARE OF NOTE WAS A LONG-DURATION C2/2F AT 31/0538Z IN REGION 8283 (N27E16). THIS FLARE WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A 12 DEGREE DSF AND STRONG TYPE II SWEEP. THE THIRD FLARE WAS A B7 AT 31/1540Z ASSOCIATED WITH FILAMENT ACTIVATION AND PARTIAL ERUPTION IN REGION 8282 (N30W48). NEW REGIONS 8289 (N22W63), 8290 (N17E63), AND 8291 (S23E09) WERE NUMBERED. REGION 8290 PRODUCED THE ONLY OTHER OPTICAL FLARE REPORTED, A SF (NO X-RAY OUTPUT) AT 31/1605Z.

SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8280, 8282, AND 8290. REGION 8282 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE BEFORE ITS DISK DEPARTURE.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS. ACE RTSW DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE EARTH'S MAGNETOSPHERE IS REACTING TO SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR WIND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH DENSITY (20-70 P/CC), SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SPEED (420 KM/S), AND VARIABLE BZ (+/- 12 NT). THE NATURE OF THIS STRUCTURE (TRANSIENT OR NOT) IS NOT CLEAR FROM THE AVAILABLE DATA.

THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SOLAR EVENTS WHICH WERE OBSERVED TODAY (DSFS AND TYPE II/IV SWEEPS) MAY INDICATE THE OCCURRENCE OF CMES WHICH COULD AFFECT ACTIVITY LEVELS AT THE END, OR JUST OUTSIDE, OF THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

  Vaadeldud       31 JUL 114
  Prognoositud   01 AUG-03 AUG  112/110/108
  90 päeva keskmine        31 JUL 110

OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG  015/015-010/012-010/015