Vaata neljapäev, 28 mai 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 May 28 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 148 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 28 MAY 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8226 (N18W81)
PRODUCED A M1/SF WITH AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE AND MINOR RADIO BURSTS
AT 28/1353Z. THIS REGION IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES INCLUDING A C8 AT 26/1912Z WHICH ALSO PRODUCED AN ERUPTIVE
PROMINENCE. LIMB PROXIMITY HAS MADE MEASUREMENTS DIFFICULT BUT
MAGNETIC ANALYSIS SUGGEST A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. REGION 8224
HAS ROTATED AROUND THE WEST LIMB NEAR S24 BUT DID PRODUCE A C3/SF AT
26/0101Z. REGION 8227 (N26E53), A D-TYPE BETA GROUP, PRODUCED A
C2/SF WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 28/1126Z.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8226 IS CAPABLE OF FURTHER M-CLASS ACTIVITY AS
IT ROTATES THE WEST LIMB. ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM
REGION 8227.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 27-2100Z kuni 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 30/1600Z. WE EXPECT
PERIODS OF ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ON 30-31 MAY IN RESPONSE
TO THE LONG DURATION C7 X-RAY EVENT ON 27/1335Z. A CME OCCURRED WITH
THIS EVENT AND EJECTA APPEARS EARTHBOUND.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 29 MAYkuni 31 MAY
| Klass M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 28 MAY 098 Prognoositud 29 MAY-31 MAY 098/098/096 90 päeva keskmine 28 MAY 108
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAY 008/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAY 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAY-31 MAY 007/008-012/015-018/015
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 29 MAY kuni 31 MAY
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 30% | 40% |
| Väike torm | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 40% | 45% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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