Vaata kolmapäev, 21 jaanuar 1998 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1998 Jan 21 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 021 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 21 JAN 1998IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME VERY LOW. ONLY SMALL TO MID
B-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED. A MODERATELY LARGE FILAMENT LOCATED
NEAR S57E19 FADED BETWEEN 21/0400-0603Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY A LONG DURATION ARCADE IN THE EUV AND A PARTIAL HALO CORONAL MASS
EJECTION. MOST OF THE HALO OF MATERIAL WAS VISIBLE AROUND THE SOUTH
POLE BUT SOME WAS SEEN INTO NORTHERN LATITUDES AND PRESUMABLY INTO
AND ABOVE THE ECLIPTIC PLANE.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
VERY LOW LEVEL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 20-2100Z kuni 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FROM 21/0600-0900Z. NEAR THE END OF
THE REPORTING PERIOD, SOLAR WIND VELOCITIES DROPPED FROM
APPROXIMATELY 450 KM/S TO NEAR 350 KM/S.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR 22-23 JAN. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY ON 24 JAN IN RESPONSE TO THE HALO CME MENTIONED
ABOVE. BRIEF MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON THAT DAY.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 22 JANkuni 24 JAN
| Klass M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 21 JAN 091 Prognoositud 22 JAN-24 JAN 090/089/088 90 päeva keskmine 21 JAN 096
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN 008/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN 008/010-008/008-015/012
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 22 JAN kuni 24 JAN
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 20% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 15% | 10% | 35% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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