Vaata teisipäev, 23 detsember 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Dec 23 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 357 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 23 DEC 1997IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8124 (S22E40) WAS
GENERALLY QUIET, PRODUCING ONLY MINOR FLARING. THIS REGION HAS MORE
THAN DOUBLED ITS SPOT AREA AND NOW SHOWS AN EKC GROUP OF 27 SPOTS
WITH A COMPLEX BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. REGION 8123
(N18W64) HAS DECAYED INTO A SINGLE AXX SPOT. NEW REGIONS 8125
(N19E41), A SIMPLE BXO SPOT GROUP, AND 8126 (N20E79), AN HHX SPOT
GROUP, WERE NUMBERED TODAY. REGION 8126 IS THE REAPPEARANCE OF OLD
REGION 8113 WHICH PRODUCED FOUR M-CLASS FLARES AND ONE X-CLASS
FLARE.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE, DESPITE THE LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
REGION 8124 SHOWS THE BEST CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY AND A
CHANCE FOR M-CLASS FLARING. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY. REGION 8126 IS STILL AN UNKNOWN
DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE EAST LIMB, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY AND ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARING. VIEWING
TOMORROW WILL DETERMINE THE PRESENCE OF TRAILER SPOTS, IF ANY, AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED FLARE POTENTIAL.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 22-2100Z kuni 23-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 24 DECkuni 26 DEC
| Klass M | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Klass X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 23 DEC 104 Prognoositud 24 DEC-26 DEC 106/108/110 90 päeva keskmine 23 DEC 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 DEC 002/002 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 DEC 004/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 DEC-26 DEC 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 24 DEC kuni 26 DEC
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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