Vaata reede, 12 detsember 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Dec 12 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
::::::::::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::::::::: SDF number 346 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 12 DEC 1997IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8119 (N33W49), AN 8 SPOT
DAO GROUP, PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 12/0713UT. REGION 8122 (N31W18), A 14
SPOT DSO GROUP, PRODUCED OCCASIONAL B-CLASS SUBFLARES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BOTH THESE REGIONS ARE THE LIKELY SOURCES OF THREE
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS FLARES THAT OCCURRED BETWEEN 12/1046 -
12/1218UT. ALL THREE OF THESE C-CLASS FLARES APPEARED DURING A
PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSIONS BETWEEN 12/1000 -
12/1300UT. THE ENHANCMENT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A
LONG, APPROXIMATELY 50 DEGREE, FRAGMENTED FILAMENT FROM THE SW
QUADRANT. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET AND STABLE.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8119 EXHIBITED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE
YESTERDAY BUT IS STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS
FLARING. REGION 8122 HAS STABILIZED SINCE ITS DRAMATIC GROWTH
YESTERDAY AND IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARING.
OLD REGION 8108 IS ROUNDING THE EAST LIMB BUT APPEARS MUCH WEAKER
THAN ITS LAST TRANSIT ON THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 11-2100Z kuni 12-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 13 DECkuni 15 DEC
| Klass M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Klass X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Prooton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 12 DEC 093 Prognoositud 13 DEC-15 DEC 094/095/095 90 päeva keskmine 12 DEC 093
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 DEC 011/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 DEC 003/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 DEC-15 DEC 010/008-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 13 DEC kuni 15 DEC
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
Kõik ajad UTC-s
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