Vaata esmaspäev, 3 november 1997 arhiivi
Päikese aktiivsuse aruanne
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Päikese ja geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse aruanne 1997 Nov 03 2200 UTCValminud NOAA © SWPC ja töödeldud SpaceWeatherLive.com-iga
Ühine USAF / NOAA päikese- ja geofüüsikaalase aktiivsuse aruanne
SDF number 307 Välja antud 2200Z kuni 03 NOV 1997IA. Päikese aktiivsete piirkondade ja päikeseaktiivsuse analüüs alates 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8100 (S20W27)
PRODUCED AN M1/1B FLARE AT 03/0910Z AND AN M4 (NO OPTICAL) FLARE AT
03/1029Z. BOTH FLARES WERE IMPULSIVE AND HAD TYPE II/IV EVENTS WITH
MODERATE CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. CORONAL MORETON WAVES WERE OBSERVED
WITH THESE EVENTS. A HALO CME WAS OBSERVED TO FOLLOW THESE EVENTS.
FINALLY, REGION 8100 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 03/2016Z WITH A TYPE IV.
DURING THE PERIOD, DRAMATIC GROWTH OCCURRED IN THIS REGION AND A
STRONG MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATION FORMED. REGION 8100 BECAME A
SIGNIFICANT REGION DURING THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO LARGE AREAL
COVERAGE AND GREATLY INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND HIGH
GRADIENTS. REPORTS WERE RECEIVED OF STRONG SHEAR THAT HAD DEVELOPED
NEAR THE DELTA AND EMERGING FLUX.
IB. Päikese aktiivsuse ennustus
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 8100 IS CAPABLE OF CONTINUED M-CLASS AND
OCCASIONAL X-CLASS EVENT PRODUCTION. CONTINUED DRAMATIC GROWTH COULD
RESULT IN A REGION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT M-CLASS EVENTS AND
SEVERAL X-CLASS EVENTS A DAY.
IIA. Summaarne geofüüsikaline aktiivsus 02-2100Z kuni 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ONCE AGAIN, ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geofüüsikalise aktiivsuse ennustus
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
FORECAST TO BE UNSETTLED ON 04 NOV. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR 05 NOV. DUE TO THE HALO CME MENTIONED ABOVE, ACTIVE
TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON 06 NOVEMBER. PERIODS OF MAJOR
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DISTURBANCE. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A MODERATE POSSIBILITY OF AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT FROM
REGION 8100 DURING THE PERIOD. ONE MORE DAY OF CONTINUED GROWTH AND
INCREASE OF MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY WOULD MAKE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT
OCCURRENCE HIGH.
III. Sündmuste tõenäosus 04 NOVkuni 06 NOV
| Klass M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Klass X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Prooton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Pikklaine 10.7 cm kiirgus
Vaadeldud 03 NOV 110 Prognoositud 04 NOV-06 NOV 115/120/120 90 päeva keskmine 03 NOV 088
V. Geomagneetiline A-indeks
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 NOV 002/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 NOV 002/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 NOV-06 NOV 010/010-018/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetilised aktiivsuse tõenäosused 04 NOV kuni 06 NOV
| A. Keskmistel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 15% | 30% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. Kõrgetel laiuskraadidel | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Aktiivne | 10% | 25% | 30% |
| Väike torm | 05% | 20% | 35% |
| Suur-tõsine torm | 01% | 05% | 20% |
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